CMBS: Monitoring Property Type Relief Requests and Forbearance

A move towards stability appeared this past week in the CMBS market.  Across all major property types, the level of new loans entering delinquency status was largely unchanged.  Last week we highlighted an uptick in modifications involving hotel and retail properties involving releasing of reserves and waiving of covenants.  While these indicators are consistent with some of the consensus macro level forecasts becoming less bearish, a more nuanced take on the overall market must be taken.  We have been monitoring servicer comments and have been noticing an uptick in the mention of COVID and forbearance which is indicative of future trends.  At this point, over 36% of the hotel universe and 23% of the retail universe have indicated a need for relief due to COVID-19.  As expected, the percentage of forbearance in process or granted is also increasing.  The trend and stress found in these two CMBS markets is quite consistent with our preliminary estimates of second quarter rent and vacancy trend data due to be released next month.

Loan Balance with Servicer Comments Mentioning COVID or Forbearance by Property Type

 

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