Idiosyncratic Shocks and Multifamily Housing: Covid-19 and What We Can Learn from Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Terrorism

Analysis by Dr. Victor Calanog & Dr. Thomas LaSalvia

How will multifamily performance metrics be affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic over the long run? In this analysis, Dr. Victor Calanog, Chief CRE Economist at Moody’s Analytics, and Dr. Thomas LaSalvia, an economics professor at the College of William and Mary, examine case studies from idiosyncratic shocks of the past—the Northridge Earthquake of 1994 in Los Angeles; Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans in 2005; and the 9/11 terrorist attack —for guidance on how both supply- and demand-side factors may change in response to the experience of the coronavirus and social distancing.

 

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Victor Calanog, PhD CRE® is the Head of CRE Economics at Moody’s Analytics REIS. He and his team of economists and analysts are responsible for the firm’s market forecasting, valuation, and real estate portfolio analytics services. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science, trained by a dissertation committee composed of faculty from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard Business School.

Thomas LaSalvia, PhD is a Professor of Economics at the College of William and Mary.

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Looking for additional insights? Explore our interactive COVID-19 map to analyze the potential impact on commercial real estate markets.

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You may also find our website dedicated to COVID-19 to be helpful during this time. Visit moodys.com/coronavirus for our latest research and views on the credit and economic impact of COVID-19. This site brings together insights from across Moody’s to help you better understand the financial implications of the outbreak.