In this podcast Reis's economists discuss the state of commercial real estate in New York and beyond, and moderate a panel discussion among local CRE industry leaders covering topics including macroeconomic trends, business cycle endurance, the current state of lending and financial markets, the election results and the impact on GDP, inflation, interest rates, risk-retention rules, and more.
For your convenience, we've provided the full podcast above and broken it up into multiple parts by topic below.
Opening Remarks and Introductions
Reis Senior Economist, Barbara Byrne Denham, introduces our panel:
Anika Khan - Managing Director, Senior Economist, Wells Fargo
Robert A. Knakal - Chairman, New York Investment Sales, Cushman & Wakefield
Charles Ostroff - Senior Vice President, Agency Products, Arbor
Part 1 - The Big Picture: Business Cycle Endurance
Where do you see the CRE market at this stage in the business cycle? We’re closing in on the sixth or seventh year of the recovery which is long by anyone’s standards. Does the economy or the market still have legs? Using a sports metaphor, are we at mile 20 in a 26.2-mile marathon? Are we in inning 8 in a double header?
Part 2 - The Current State of the Lending/Finance Market
What are you seeing in the current market with respect to the financing side?
Part 3 - Election Results and the Impact on the Macro Economy: GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Segueing into the election results, many were stunned by the Trump win; and the gyrating stock market in the first 24 hours – as early as 8 pm – conveyed both the surprise and the uncertain outlook of his election. Yet now that the dust has settled a bit, the Dow is up 800 points and the 10-year Treasury yield has soared by 50 basis points. Many feel that Trump’s campaign pledges will spur increased infrastructure investment which together with reduced taxes will yield higher GDP growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. Do you agree with this sentiment? And if so, how do you foresee the CRE and investment market responding?
Part 4 - Election Results and Dodd-Frank: Risk-Retention Rules
Given the prospect that Trump could roll back Dodd-Frank provisions, how would this impact lending? Have banks already internalized risk-retention provisions ahead of the HVCRE regulations that are being implemented this month? Do you think these provisions will hold or will some banks start to ease back on retaining some skin in the game?
Questions and Answers