Why Industrial (Warehouse) Is Likely to Fare Better

Analysis by Dr. Victor Calanog et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced analysts to continually revise their estimates for economic activity as the public health crisis has evolved. In the face of this kind of uncertainty, how should we think about how the industrial property sector will be affected?

In this paper, we explore what industrial fundamentals looked like prior to the pandemic and what our current forecasts say for short- and mid-term outcome variables. We also take a deep dive into what kind of longer-term structural changes will influence the landscape of industrial metrics. And finally, we review the long-term challenges and opportunities for this industry.

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Victor Calanog, PhD CRE® is the Head of CRE Economics at Moody’s Analytics REIS. He and his team of economists and analysts are responsible for the firm’s market forecasting, valuation, and real estate portfolio analytics services. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science, trained by a dissertation committee composed of faculty from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard Business School.

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Looking for additional insights? Explore our interactive COVID-19 map to analyze the potential impact on commercial real estate markets.

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You may also find our website dedicated to COVID-19 to be helpful during this time. Visit moodys.com/coronavirus for our latest research and views on the credit and economic impact of COVID-19. This site brings together insights from across Moody’s to help you better understand the financial implications of the outbreak.